Tuesday, August 21, 2007

RIMM says, “What credit crash?"


I’ll be "short" tonight. But ponder me this riddle: On one hand, some folks are so concerned about the integrity of their money market funds that they’ve pushed 3-month Treasury paper down to yields below 3-percent—a full 2.25% below the overnight Fed funds rate. Managers of money market funds are so concerned that they might "break the buck" on their firm's money markets that they are opting for 2.5% yields, denominated in a currency that will probably drop several multiples of that yield over the next few years, over what used to be AAA, "money-good" commercial paper. Yet, on the other hand, some folks on the equity side have interpreted the recent sell-off in shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) and its ilk as a “buying opportunity.” Since last Thursday afternoon, shares of the easily commoditized Blackberry maker has rallied over 50-points and actually pegged a fresh new all-time high today based, as far as I can tell, on nothing more than RIMM's ensuing 3-for-1 stock split (paper shuffle) scheduled to go "post-split" tomorrow. As we sit tonight, the collective wisdom's among equity traders deems the gadget sold by Research In Motion to be "GDP-free." There really is no other way to frame this absurdity because at this juncture there is now essentially a zero-percent chance of avoiding a recession that is likely to cut very closer to the bone. And if this doesn't ultimately effect the kind of folks that think they need a mostly discretionay gadget like the Blackberry, then I suppose subprime is also "contained?" Its as if we have a category-5 hurricane hitting credit markets while some equity owners are literally out flying their kites.

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