Friday, June 29, 2007

Inflation: What about my freaking "comfort zone"?


Again, it was folly on parade this morning as I tuned into CNBC America here in London. The U.S. Commerce Department said that "Core consumer prices" had increased just 0.1% as was expected in May. What was clearly important to the folks on CNBC was that the "tame" year-over-year rate of just 1.9% in the past 12 months, falls within the Fed's unofficial 1% to 2% "comfort zone." To which I say, what about my freaking "comfort zone"? I know, especially here in London, that my "core inflation rate" is way outside of my own comfort zone.....Heely's (HLYS) pulled its secondary offering due to "unfavorable market conditions"? A re you kidding me--with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all within a percent or two of its all-time highs (Dow & S&P) or 52-week high for the Nasdaq? People have totally forgotten what "unfavorable" market conditions are like....Also noteworthy, as a read on the amount of fear, or lack there of, markets in the U.S. were mostly undeterred as it concerned the news across town here in London and with crude prices up another $1/barrel this morning, markets appeared to not give a rat's a---. Even though I'm quite sure a reversal of $1/barrel in crude prices would be another reason to throw a rager. All U.S. Indexes shot higher right out of the gate this morning, presumably because the long awaited release of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is deemed good for the entire planet....But being the end-of-the-quarter, I want to point out a confluence of supposedly bullish "carrots" that will quickly fade into the night. Of course, being the end-of-the-quarter, there has been the usual bout of "tape-painting" that has added to the artificial buying of stocks. That creates an artificial overhang of supply heading into July. The latest Fed meeting is already a day behind us. Of course, this assumes that the Fed is usually market friendly, which I believe to be the case. The current version of the Fed, just as the Greenspan version, is keenly aware of how their comments affect asset values in a highly leveraged asset-based economy. That is behind us. One of the silliest lead-ups to a product roll-out, Apples's iPhone, is now history as of Monday. And probably most importantly, there is every sign in the world that housing and mortgage related issues continue to deteriorate just as we've also seen a peak in debt-financed private equity and M&A activity. The obnoxious lead-up to Blackstone's (BX) IPO last week had all the markings of a peak for private equity--and is now at a discount to its IPO price. In a nutshell, things have aligned themselves pretty nicely for what should be the beginning of at least a correction and maybe more....Late in the day, word that the SEC has requested documents from Bear Stearns and their "High Grade" hedge funds brought an abrupt end to the day's giddiness. Whether or not the toothless SEC and Christopher Cox decides to get to the bottom of the CDO/Hedge Fund chicanery remains to be seen. But if for some reason they feel it necessary to excessive some "oversight" on this mess, a few days or weeks before it goes "Enron" on them, it does have the potential to get very interesting.

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