Thursday, June 7, 2007

On the brink: "The big un-wind?"


Perhaps today's market action is the beginning of another head fake for "the big unwind," but there will be a time when buying the dips fails to work.....The Dow Industrial were hit rather hard, 198-points....Treasury Bonds were walloped!!! Volume in the Treasury market was enormous once the 10-year broke above a 5-handle....This global backing-up in rates is putting every pending and recently finalized LBO deal at risk. When the liquidity (read: debt) spawned by private equity dries-up, we may final begin "the big unwind." It will be one for the ages......Jim Cramer, I'm told, has officially labeled Google (GOOG), $525, Apple (AAPL), $127, Research In Motion (RIMM), $167, and Amazon (AMZN), $74, as the new four horsemen. As this posting will be archived, check these prices within the next 12-24 months of this date (6/7/07). Most or all of these "four horsemen" will be more than cut in half. In fact, I'm quite confident that the old four horsemen, Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), Cisco (CSCO) and Intel (INTC) will easlily outperform the current group by a pretty wide margin, even if its just the case of not losing as much. Jim Cramer is a walking, breathing contrarian indicator...Lastly, I believe the pounding of both bonds and stocks is occurring as a result of the current air of vulnerability in the mighty U.S. Dollar (read: confetti). In recent weeks, Kuwait has decided to de-link its currency from the dollar. Brazil and Argentina has ended their bi-lateral dollar-based trade agreement (read: no more settlements in U.S. dollars). The United Arab Emirates has hinted at de-linking. JGBs (Japanese bonds) have put in a impressive looking topping-pattern and will be a tremendous short trade. The German Bund, I beleive is breaking down. Australia raised it benchmark lending rate and New Zealand surprised markets with its own hike. The Ausie and NZ dollars established fresh new generational highs against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index broke down below its 200-day moving average for the first time since the early 70s last week. Yet, complacency reigns. The U.S. dollar has been a nagging issue for some five years now, and nothing real bad has happened, except that the U.S. Government has to lie about their official inflation rate. But the soldiers appear to be lining-up along all borders for a dollar rout. Maybe, like I said, this is another storm that will fade into the night, but sooner or later, the storm will be a "Cat-5." We'll see how this one plays out, but I urge readers---don't try to be heros. The money shot will be when the dollar gets abandoned and foreigners unload their dollar-assets. That's the terminal bet. Non-dollar currencies will come in handy, as will real money, gold and silver. Playing the zigs and zags of the "leveraged bets" will be futile if you find yourself "all in" on the day the dam is breached.

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