Thursday, September 6, 2007

A bell never ‘ringtones’ at the top


You know things have become a bit too cozy when folks can concern themselves with the sound of their phone’s ringtone even as its country’s constitution is being used as a mere door mat. The former was one of today’s “major” announcements from Steve Jobs and Apple (AAPL), to let songs to be made into iPhone ring tones—oh, for 99-cents. And you pretty much know a stock has reached or is near achieving bubble-status when marginal product changes are treated as headline news. I subscribe to MarketWatch’s e-mail news alerts (among many). In addition to news alerts of today’s Pending Home Sales figure, Mattel’s (MAT) latest Chinese-made toy recall and an account of the Fed’s Beige Book release, I also received a headline that read, “Apple adds touch screen and Wi-Fi to iPod line, ups memory; iPod nano gets video capacity.” Pay attention to the signs. A company’s stock is usually not cheap when the financial press deems it necessary to provide play-by-play on its CEO’s bowel movements……Mattel is recalling 700,000 more toys due to safety concerns. It was he third such recall in five weeks. As was the case with their most recent massive recall, the toys were reportedly manufactured in China. Given the spate of China-made related recalls, I suspect there is somewhat of a disconnect between the growing concerns related shoddy manufacturing practices and the blind faith investors around the world have placed in it's stock market and by extension the integrity of China’s accounting as it relates to China-based, publicly traded companies. Judging by the hyperbolic move in Chinese shares this year—up 150% in just 8-months, and 5-year returns that now exceed the returns witnessed by the Nasdaq from 1995 thru early 2000, so far, investors seem to have concluded that it’s a lot more difficult to sell a lead-based toys to American parents than it is to lie about their earnings….. ADP’s “JV” jobs report reportedly grew by an anemic 38,000 in August. This number excludes an expected 27,000 government jobs anticipated to be included in Friday’s “Varsity” Bureau of Labor Statistics report putting the total of 65,000 well below the 100,000 to 123,000 expected on Friday. This was the weakest in four years. ….With over $1-trillion of corporate financing slated over the next few weeks from commercial paper rolling over to funding for previously announced private-equity deals, LIBOR is making this tank a bit more difficult. The rate banks charge each other to borrow in dollars for three months rose for a 10th day in a row. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, increased to 5.72 percent, the highest since January 2001, from 5.70 percent yesterday and 5.36 percent at the end of July.….Also, for what its worth, one of the canaries in the coal mine, Blackstone Group (BX), saw a fresh new low today and some major retailers, Kohl’s (KSS), Best Buy (BBY) and Wal-Mart (WMT) all hit new 52-week lows today, just a day after the Nasdaq's best 4-day skein since 2003. More clues for the clueless. They’re right there for everyone to see like a naked Playboy bunny---just not as attractive.

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